What if 'voices of the future' put their money where their mouths are?

 

Utopia/Dystopia by Dylan Glynn

What is it to be hopeful? I believe it’s an acceptance of risk and having a vision or feeling that a better outcome is possible. I don’t believe hope is without realism. For example, one may hope to get home in time for the Olympics on tele but know that traffic and emails may impinge this. Take myself, I hope my research has impact but am aware of the daunting facts that in some fields more than 60% of publications are never cited. So, what is it to be hopeful as a researcher interested in the natural environment and desiring impact through better communication of the research value in society and to children and young people 200 years from now?

I am fascinated with dystopian literature; I feel dystopia makes great novels, though at its core it is not particularly hopeful, indeed the world these books are set nears a worst-case scenario in many cases. This is not to say they are devoid of hope, often the protagonists in these novels are trapped on the fringes of that dominant future society or in serious ethical, ideological or professional conflict. The authors using this tool to highlight hope for the future despite on-going injustice. Its finally worth noting that the divide between utopian literature (whilst rare) and dystopian is an interesting topic framed by one’s own political or ideological stance. Following this thought process, I then asked myself, is a hopeful imagining of the future one of a personal utopia? And tying this to the thought process earlier how can we sprinkle the aspect of realism into this vision?

To my mind there are two stems to imagining a future world: the ‘cataclysm’ and ‘incremental’ scenarios. I personally find it impossible to imagine a cataclysmic event that will alter our and the next generations views on treescapes/nature. Incremental however, a process entwined in politics, economics and education, that I can imagine.

So, What If, the name of a recent Disney adaptation of superheroes and the source of so much future planning, thinking and hope. What if, children of the future had a deeper and tighter appreciation and understanding to nature, trees and climate change? What if, these children voted accordingly and made shopping decisions impacting how corporations behave? What if, those that first generation of children had a second generation who are environmentalism of an opportunity within a still a broadly neo-liberal world? What if, this stimulated a social-political movement perhaps called eco-marketism whereby capital is still accrued by corporations and governments play only a small role drawing a few but very effective climate related lines in the sand in terms of regulation. What if, other than that IPCC forecast were broadly correct regarding climatological change and that other than some regulation it was ‘business as usual’. What then, would society look like where people vote and green policy is monetarised, a society more in touch with nature, climate change and the roles of local treescapes.

So, given those guiding principles of hopefulness what might my optimistic and hopeful vision of society 200 years from now looks like. Despite climate change being a global issue, I will refine my vision to a European city simply due to my upbringing and background. So…. Let’s go for a walk, an imaginary walk down ‘market street’.

The year is 2222 and walking down ‘market street’ is a child, Marcus. Holding Marcus’ hand and swinging him over puddle after puddle on an overcast autumn day are his grandparents Porcia and Zeno. Marcus’ grandparents were born in a very different time, but it is the journey they started that provides the societal structure Marcus’ will grow up in. His grandparents are commonly referred to members of the second silent generation. They lived through a period of sustained economic growth and investment and yet as this generation approach retirement with reasonable economic security they are optimised by a sense of both pride shame regarding their impacts on the world. The second silent generation trigged a water-shed moment in European politics as both the French, Dutch, Irish and British governments were all propped up by minority partners from the ecologically focused Green or populist parties in the mid-2180s. They also make up a demographic of unprecedented charitability on national and international scales, and the governments voted in also managed to reverse trend in ‘high street’ as public space use for significant commercial and social opportunity. Yet, Porcia and Zeno also lived through a suite climate induced crisis much like those 200 years earlier of Live Aid that they themselves had only seen on YouTube and from great-grandparents of the 1980s. This generation sleepwalked into these disasters reaping the benefits of green economic growth. Nobody in 2222 is quite sure if these crises inspired the green movement or if the movement had already begun and was re-enforced sadly by these disasters. Either way it is commonly accepted that not enough was done starting at the turn of the millennium, and sadly payment came due in the late 2140s and 50s with the inter-continental droughts of both South America and Africa from 2190 to 2192. Despite billions rediverted to low laying countries from EU states in foreign aid from 2180, the world first eco-engineering mass failure occurred as the great sea wall of Bangladesh failed cause widespread famine. The boot of climate change finally struck home for the British people in 2201 as Britain suffered three sequential year’s floods in East Anglia, Cumbria and the Somerset levels.

Marcus’ grandparents were taught in school about climate change, carbon budgeting and both them and Marcus’s great grandparents tended to favour the use of companies with low carbon footprint, buying there electric from renewable suppliers and living in a city with effect metro system and owned a single hybrid car between them. Indeed, other members of his grandparents were even more ambitious seeing opportunity in the environmental degradation and the tighter regulation of products on the market opening thousands of small eco-friendly shops nearly exempt from tax. Yet this was not enough, we will never know how bad these climate disasters could have been without the incremental change’s improvement in business and climate responsible behaviour. Nor will we ever know how much they could have been countered by more drastic or earlier social-political change. All that is know is that indeed these events were broadly in keeping with predictions some 200 years earlier in IPCC documents. Such knowledge has made science nearly irrefutable and indeed populist political parties air on the side of worst-case not denial making a far different pollical environment to discuss the environment.

Back to the imaginary walk... Marcus’ grandparents are approaching retirement and have come to the ‘high street’ via hybrid bus look for Christmas gift for their daughter a keen artist and woodworker but also importantly for this story looking for opportunities to volunteer in their retirement. The ‘high street’ hasn’t changed much in the last 200 years in that it still has a mixture of large chains, franchises, local art/crafts and charitable shops. The difference now is that 30% of those charitable shops are now ecologically focused. As his grandfather lifts Marcus’ over his head their eyes are drawn to the woodland trust shop, a common site in many moderate sized towns in Britain. “How about the woodland trust” asks Porcia with a sip from her biodegradable coffee cup (the world still loves a coffee). Certainly, both Zeno and Porcia love their cosy garden, so why not contribute though landscape scale gardening and restoration. The woodland trust, to whom they pay a membership, has since the early 2100s grown at an incredible rate. The trust now commands a membership of 5.65 million, over 20,000 staff and 60,000 volunteers. This membership in 2222 is comparable to the current National trust of the early 2000s and far exceeds any political party in the UK. For both Marcus’ grandparents this trust marks an appealing option in retirement with a vibrant community of volunteers and national presence in nature and in the town centre. “Marcus” asks his grandfather, “would like help plant some trees?”. The response heart-warming to his grandparents “To help those poor people on YouTube grandad? During the holidays? Can we go to Scotland?”. As they walk into the shop, Marcus’ eyes are drawn to a bright ceramic bumblebee house, “Mummy would love these bzzzzzz”, barely a moments breath as Marcus darts across the shop “no no wait…” and picking up a roll sustainable toilet roll and passing to his grandmother pointing “this !!” pointing enthusiastically printed phrase on the loo roll “I give a crap”.

This moment witnessing his grandparents’ desire to change the world for the better could mark the first steps in an active political, moral, philosophical mind set are sown. Who knows where Marcus’ will take his vision? The questions come once again, what if? What if, Marcus’ generation continues to vote with their feet and put their money where their mouths are? What if corporations continue to push towards sustainability bounded within the frame of governments grants and tax reductions? What if Marcus’ generation continue their grandparent’s example in charitability with money and time? 

I believe that my hopeful vision of the future lands us in a position 200 years from now where lessons have finally been learnt incrementally and perhaps it will be our great grandchildren do begin the process of mitigation. I hope that on a ‘market street’ or in a school classroom 200 years from now people are talking and acting to reinforce climate science though both practical and theoretical education. This education in turn leading to a deeper and wider engagement with nature.

Peter Lawrence